Warnings, Watches, and Advisories
None
Turning Stormy: We have a weak cold front moving over as of 10PM that is sparking off some showers and thunderstorms. Our chances of rain do increase overnight and Thursday as a warm front associated with a low pressure system and a cold front will move over. The warm front will north on during the day pulling warmer air that will spark the morning round of showers and thunderstorms. Once that warm front is over, a low pressure system will move over during the day that will drag a cold front with it. That front is what will trigger our afternoon storms. The SPC has put Illiana and the Wabash Valley under a Slight Risk of severe weather. We are also in the 30% probability, which means that our chances of severe weather will be higher. Main threats should remain damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Tornado threat is going to be low as we are not into a good time of the year for tornadoes. Give us about another month and you will start to see chances increase. The best timing for severe weather will be in the afternoon to late evening hours. Generally speaking, about anytime after 2PM is when we will see severe weather. I do believe that our first warnings for the afternoon will come before 3PM, but I do not want to say that 100%. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, Thursday highs in the low to mid-80s, and overnight Thursday in the low 60s.
Friday: Still a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, but you will notice it will be much cooler. The cold front moving over will be a strong cold front and it will drop our temps to more fall like in the low to mid-70s. We should start to see things clear out overnight Friday, starting off mostly cloudy, but should be more partly cloudy towards daybreak. We could wake up to temps on Saturday morning in the mid-50s. Just to make things more interesting, I think we might see one location hit 49.
Weekend: The trough of low pressure that will bring us the rain will move on up towards Canada and on the back side bring down cooler and drier air for this weekend. We do have high pressure that will start off in Wisconsin Saturday, move over us, and be east of us on Sunday. Mainly clear and dry this weekend with temps in the upper 70s.
Next Week: Clear and turning warm is what I can say best. Some clouds might be around on Monday, so I am calling for partly sunny skies in the low 80s, but Tuesday and Wednesday do look to be sunny in the mid to upper 80s thanks in part to a high pressure system. One note, I am watching a warm front Wednesday that might head our way Thursday. I’ll be watching it for you.
Severe Weather Risk: No major severe weather for overnight, but we are in the general 5% strong thunderstorm probability. Main threats should remain wind, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Slight Risk for Thursday. We might see a few strong thunderstorms Friday before the system leaves. No severe weather thru next Wednesday.
Tropical Update: Ernesto did make landfall last night shortly after 11PM. Right now, he is a tropical storm and should remain one until Friday. At the 7PM CDT update, winds were at 50MPH, heading West at 7MPH, and pressure was at 994mb. Forecasted to head back to sea for overnight before making landfall again early Thursday afternoon, and should become a tropical depression Friday morning. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we have two system the NHC has highlighted. The first one is a surface low about 950 miles west of the Southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently moving westward at 10-15MPH and is at a 50% chance (medium) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Area number two is a weak surface trough, or what is left of Florence. Located about 350 miles Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving West-Northwest at 20MPH, and at a 0% chance (low) of becoming a tropical cyclone.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Thursday: 2.6 (Low-Medium)
Friday: 7.9 (Medium-High)
Saturday: 7.9 (Medium-High)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 67
Thursday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, cloudy, 83
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, cloudy, 62
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, cooler, 73
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy turning partly cloudy, cool, 54
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 78
Sunday: Mostly sunny, 78
Monday: Partly sunny, 82
Tuesday: Sunny, 87
Wednesday: Sunny, 88
That is it for tonight. I will have updates all day Thursday as the severe weather moves in. I will have another forecast here tomorrow night as long as the severe weather does not get to out of hand. Good night, stay safe, and God bless.
No comments:
Post a Comment