SPC Jul 27, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  EAST OF THIS FEATURE...THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT FROM NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  TO THE WEST...CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. 

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOWER LATITUDE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  MEANWHILE ...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE....AS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
/CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ BECOMES
CONFINED TO A NARROWING CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  OTHER
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL STORM
CLUSTER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...ON THE EDGE OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
ADVECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

THE RISK FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
AN AXIS OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...AS A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH...ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MAY BE SWEPT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS
WITH SOME HAIL AND THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT TOO MUCH VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS TO
SUPPORT OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 07/27/2012

Read more



via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html