Severe Weather Risk for Monday, July 30th, 2012

Today

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for parts of Wisconsin/Upper Michigan.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through early tonight for parts of the Mid-South to the Northeast Gulf Coast.

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for Central Montana late this afternoon/evening. 

Tornado Threat

Just the basic low-end 2% probability for tornadoes today for parts of Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. The conditions are right for a few supercell thunderstorms that could cause some brief spin ups. Elsewhere across the nation, chances are under 2%. 

Wind Threat

The main threat for summer time thunderstorms is the wind. The severe threat of wind, 15% probability, is in the Slight Risk area. We see the basic low end 5% probability from the Gulf States to the Carolinas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas. Head out west, from Montana to the Western Central Plains States. The 5% probability just means that the wind threat will be on the strong side at times, mainly around the 15% areas. 

Hail Threat

The 15% probability for hail, severe limit, is staying again in the Slight Risk areas. Around the 15% areas is where we find the 5% hail probability. This just means that we could see some strong thunderstorms produce hail, general under the 1” severe limit. Montana and parts of Wyoming and South Dakota under that also. 

Tuesday

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Upper Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians through much of the Eastern Gulf States.

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Carolinas to Maryland through the Ohio Valley.

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Northern and Central Plains. 

Wednesday

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for parts of the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians into the Atlantic Coast.

There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Region. 

Thursday thru next Monday

No severe weather is forecast at this time. 

That is it for today. I’ll try to get the SPC feed system to work again because it has been down for a while. Next severe weather update tomorrow. Have a great day and God bless.