Still getting reports in tonight from Oakland City after the damaging storm moved over. Early reports do say that a tornado was seen on the east side of town, 65 people with minor injuries during the Sweet Corn Parade when golf ball to baseball sized hail hit, ISP saying that only Oakland City residents with proper id can come back into town, hundreds without power at this time. We can also report that as of 9:35 this evening, the Warrick County Dispatch Center in Boonville was hit by lighting and is still down. As soon as something new comes in, we will pass it along and I will have a full recap of this in the morning. Right now, showers and storms are coming to an end and the skies will clear overnight putting our lows near 70. We will stay at or above 90 for the next seven days. Our next chance of rain will move in on Thursday Night with our best chance being Sunday. As of right now, these storms do look be strong at times. As for severe weather, SPC has not put anything out for that yet. As we do go on over the next few days, we will start to learn more, and see if a Slight Risk is needed.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 6.4 (Medium)
Thursday: 6.8 (Medium)
Friday: 5.5 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms ending, clearing, warm, 71
Wednesday: Sunny, hot, 94
Wednesday Night: Clear, cool, 64
Thursday: Sunny, hot, 96
Thursday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, warm, 72
Friday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 94
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 95
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, cloudy, hot, 93
Monday: Partly sunny turning mostly sunny, hot, 90
Tuesday: Sunny, hot, 92
Stay with EvansvilleWatch tonight and tomorrow for updates on the storms and the clean up in Oakland City. No word at this time when the National Weather Service will be there to view the damage. I will have my SPC update sometime tomorrow and I will have a full report on the Oakland City Storm tomorrow and again on Thursday. Good night and God bless.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Covington FirstAlert Forecast for Tuesday, July 31st, 2012 (Evening)
I am going to keep the forecast short tonight because I’m getting storm damage reports coming in from the Tri-State area after a reported tornado was seen on the east side of Oakland City, IN. No watches or warnings for us at this time. We will stay clear and cool for tonight and Wednesday Night. We will be hot for Wednesday thru Sunday, but temps should be below 90 for Monday and Tuesday. Our next chance of rain does return on Thursday with our best chance being on Sunday. Some of these storms could be strong at times. As for severe weather, that will be a day-by-day thing for right now.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 7.2 (Medium)
Thursday: 8.3 (Medium-High)
Friday: 7.2 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Clearing, cool, 62
Wednesday: Sunny, hot, 90
Wednesday Night: Clear, cool, 61
Thursday: Mostly sunny, hot, 92
Thursday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, 68
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 91
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy/sunny, hot, 93
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 90
Monday: Sunny, cool, 85
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, 88
My next update will be sometime tomorrow. I’ll have the SPC update and an update on the Oakland City, IN, storms. Good night and God bless.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 7.2 (Medium)
Thursday: 8.3 (Medium-High)
Friday: 7.2 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Clearing, cool, 62
Wednesday: Sunny, hot, 90
Wednesday Night: Clear, cool, 61
Thursday: Mostly sunny, hot, 92
Thursday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, 68
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 91
Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy/sunny, hot, 93
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 90
Monday: Sunny, cool, 85
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, 88
My next update will be sometime tomorrow. I’ll have the SPC update and an update on the Oakland City, IN, storms. Good night and God bless.
Severe Weather Risk for Tuesday, July 31st, 2012
Today
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Plains.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Midwest.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the North
Central Gulf Coast.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the
Southeast U.S. Coast and Northern Florida.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the
Central High Plains.
Tornado Threat
No tornado threat for today!
Wind Threat
The 15% wind probability, severe limit, is staying in the
normal Slight Risk areas. The low-end 5% probabilities for today will go from
the Northern to Central Plains, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Southwestern New York
State to the Tennessee/North Carolina area.
Hail Threat
The 15% hail probability, severe limit, will be in
Indianapolis, Evansville, Louisville, and Cincinnati in the Midwest and Minot,
Bismarck, Fargo, and Grand Forks in the Northern Plains States. Elsewhere, the
low-end 5% probability will be around the 15% area and for the Central High
Plains, North Central Gulf Coast, and Southeast U.S. Coast and Northern Florida
Slight Risk areas.
Wednesday
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the
Appalachians and Atlantic Seaboard.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes Region.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Central
Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast.
Thursday
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorm
Thursday/Thursday Night across parts of the Northern Central Plains and Mid-Missouri
Valley.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday
across parts the Central and Eastern Gulf States.
Friday thru next Tuesday
Predictability is too low at this time for severe
weather.
Next severe weather update is tomorrow. Have a great day
and God bless.
Monday, July 30, 2012
EvansvilleWatch Forecast for Monday, July 30th, 2012 (Evening)
Note: We had a power outage Friday Evening. That is why there was no forecast Friday Night. It did come back on our 10PM EDT, but by the time I would get everything back up and running, it would be too late to post. It was just better to just skip it for the evening.
Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
No watches, warnings, and advisories at this time. We could see a Heat Advisory go out later this week. See the forecast.
The Tri-State just needs a vacation from this heat. Still in the “Dog Days of Summer,” meaning we still have more hot days to go. Good news that I can report on tonight is that parts of the Tri-State, mainly the southern part, will get a chance of seeing some showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure over the Memphis area is causing some showers and thunderstorms to form in part of our area. If you get one, be happy. If you don’t, better luck next time. Skies should stay partly cloudy with lows around 70, so just keep the AC.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Any rain left in the Tri-State should end in the early morning hours. After that, we turn hot. I’m forecasting highs for the Evansville area to be in the upper 90s, but I do think we will see locations hit 100. Add in the humidity and dew points and you get something that I do not want to talk about because it’s just hard to explain it, again. A cold front will start to push into the Tri-State during the late evening hours kicking off some showers and thunderstorms with partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s.
Wednesday thru Thursday: The cold front will turn into a stationary front, but will be weak. We might see a shower and thunderstorm here or there. One thing I can tell you is it will stay hot. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-90s and Wednesday Night lows in the mid-60s.
Friday and the Weekend: We will be watching a cold front on Friday that looks to give us about a 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday looking to be about a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front from the Plain States will move in during Sunday and Sunday Night, giving the Tri-State a little over a 40% of showers and thunderstorms. Highs for Friday and Saturday should stay in the mid-90s with Sunday staying in the low to mid-90s.
Monday: Some showers and thunderstorms staying around for the morning hours, but will start to clear as the day starts. Skies should stay partly to mostly sunny in the low to mid-90s.
Severe Weather Risk: The SPC has the Tri-State in the low-end 5% probability for thunderstorms on Tuesday. In other words, thunderstorms at times on Tuesday could be on the strong side. Main threat should be wind. For Wednesday thru next Monday, SPC does not have us under Slight Risk or chance of severe weather at this time. Some storms on Sunday could be on the strong side at times. As for severe, we will just have to wait. I believe that the SPC should just keep days 4-8 for major severe weather events, like a severe weather outbreak, only.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Tuesday: 6.3 (Medium)
Wednesday: 7.3 (Med-High)
Thursday: 7.3 (Med-High)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Isolated shower and thunderstorm, mostly cloudy, warm, 70
Tuesday: Sunny, hot, isolated showers and thunderstorms late, 98
Tuesday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 69
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, 95
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, 66
Thursday: Sunny, hot, 96
Friday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 95
Saturday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 95
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 93
Monday: Widely scattered morning showers and thunderstorms, clearing, hot, 93
That is it for tonight. Next blog update will be the severe weather risk blog in the morning. Have a great evening and God bless.
Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
No watches, warnings, and advisories at this time. We could see a Heat Advisory go out later this week. See the forecast.
The Tri-State just needs a vacation from this heat. Still in the “Dog Days of Summer,” meaning we still have more hot days to go. Good news that I can report on tonight is that parts of the Tri-State, mainly the southern part, will get a chance of seeing some showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure over the Memphis area is causing some showers and thunderstorms to form in part of our area. If you get one, be happy. If you don’t, better luck next time. Skies should stay partly cloudy with lows around 70, so just keep the AC.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Any rain left in the Tri-State should end in the early morning hours. After that, we turn hot. I’m forecasting highs for the Evansville area to be in the upper 90s, but I do think we will see locations hit 100. Add in the humidity and dew points and you get something that I do not want to talk about because it’s just hard to explain it, again. A cold front will start to push into the Tri-State during the late evening hours kicking off some showers and thunderstorms with partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s.
Wednesday thru Thursday: The cold front will turn into a stationary front, but will be weak. We might see a shower and thunderstorm here or there. One thing I can tell you is it will stay hot. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-90s and Wednesday Night lows in the mid-60s.
Friday and the Weekend: We will be watching a cold front on Friday that looks to give us about a 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday looking to be about a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front from the Plain States will move in during Sunday and Sunday Night, giving the Tri-State a little over a 40% of showers and thunderstorms. Highs for Friday and Saturday should stay in the mid-90s with Sunday staying in the low to mid-90s.
Monday: Some showers and thunderstorms staying around for the morning hours, but will start to clear as the day starts. Skies should stay partly to mostly sunny in the low to mid-90s.
Severe Weather Risk: The SPC has the Tri-State in the low-end 5% probability for thunderstorms on Tuesday. In other words, thunderstorms at times on Tuesday could be on the strong side. Main threat should be wind. For Wednesday thru next Monday, SPC does not have us under Slight Risk or chance of severe weather at this time. Some storms on Sunday could be on the strong side at times. As for severe, we will just have to wait. I believe that the SPC should just keep days 4-8 for major severe weather events, like a severe weather outbreak, only.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Tuesday: 6.3 (Medium)
Wednesday: 7.3 (Med-High)
Thursday: 7.3 (Med-High)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Isolated shower and thunderstorm, mostly cloudy, warm, 70
Tuesday: Sunny, hot, isolated showers and thunderstorms late, 98
Tuesday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 69
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, 95
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, 66
Thursday: Sunny, hot, 96
Friday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 95
Saturday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, hot, 95
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 93
Monday: Widely scattered morning showers and thunderstorms, clearing, hot, 93
That is it for tonight. Next blog update will be the severe weather risk blog in the morning. Have a great evening and God bless.
Covington FirstAlert Forecast for Monday, July 30th, 2012 (Evening)
Note: We had a power outage Friday Evening. That is why there was no forecast Friday Night. It did come back on our 10PM EDT, but by the time I would get everything back up and running, it would be too late to post. It was just better to just skip it for the evening.
Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
None
We are really in the “Dog Days of Summer.” Another hot one today and we are going to try to stay hot again for the next seven days. Tonight skies stay partly cloudy, meaning that we will not lose all of our daytime heating, with lows in the upper 60s. If you want to keep the windows open go for it. If you want the AC on, go for it. It will just be one of those nights.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: We have a cold front that will start to enter the Illiana area after the midday hour and should in Illiana and the heart of the Wabash Valley in the evening hours. This front will spark off a few showers and thunderstorms. If you get one, you are going to be lucky. Before the front moves in, skies should be mostly sunny for the day with highs in the lower 90s. Tuesday Night is when we start to cool down and head towards the lower 60s for lows. No debating on if the windows should be open or closed.
Wednesday thru Thursday: The cold front will keep our temps below 90 for Wednesday, but skies will stay on the sunny side thanks to high pressure over Lake Michigan. Wednesday Night will once again be a nice night to leave the windows open with lows in the lower 60s under mostly clear to clear skies. Thursday we start to see temps rise again into the lower 90s under sunny skies.
Friday and the Weekend: This is where our chances of rain really do start to come into play. We have a cold front that will move in during Friday giving us about a 35% chance of rain. Rain chances for Saturday go down to 25% and Sunday just under 20%. Highs for all three days will stay around 90 under partly cloudy/sunny skies.
Monday: Once again on the back side of a cold front with high pressure moving in. Highs for next Monday staying in the upper 80s with partly sunny skies to start the day and turning to mostly sunny.
Severe Weather Risk: SPC has not place us under a Slight Risk of severe weather for tonight, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and days 4-8 do not have anything severe at this time. However, some of our thunderstorms in the forecast could be at times on the strong side. Main threats should just be wind.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Tuesday: 7.2 (Medium)
Wednesday: 8.2 (Med-High)
Thursday: 8.2 (Med-High)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy, warm, 68
Tuesday: Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, hot, 92
Tuesday Night: Clearing, cooler, 63
Wednesday: Sunny, 88
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear to clear, 62
Thursday: Sunny, hot, 92
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 91
Saturday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 91
Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 90
Monday: Mostly to partly sunny, 88
That is it for tonight. Next blog update will be the severe weather risk blog in the morning. Have a great evening and God bless.
Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
None
We are really in the “Dog Days of Summer.” Another hot one today and we are going to try to stay hot again for the next seven days. Tonight skies stay partly cloudy, meaning that we will not lose all of our daytime heating, with lows in the upper 60s. If you want to keep the windows open go for it. If you want the AC on, go for it. It will just be one of those nights.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: We have a cold front that will start to enter the Illiana area after the midday hour and should in Illiana and the heart of the Wabash Valley in the evening hours. This front will spark off a few showers and thunderstorms. If you get one, you are going to be lucky. Before the front moves in, skies should be mostly sunny for the day with highs in the lower 90s. Tuesday Night is when we start to cool down and head towards the lower 60s for lows. No debating on if the windows should be open or closed.
Wednesday thru Thursday: The cold front will keep our temps below 90 for Wednesday, but skies will stay on the sunny side thanks to high pressure over Lake Michigan. Wednesday Night will once again be a nice night to leave the windows open with lows in the lower 60s under mostly clear to clear skies. Thursday we start to see temps rise again into the lower 90s under sunny skies.
Friday and the Weekend: This is where our chances of rain really do start to come into play. We have a cold front that will move in during Friday giving us about a 35% chance of rain. Rain chances for Saturday go down to 25% and Sunday just under 20%. Highs for all three days will stay around 90 under partly cloudy/sunny skies.
Monday: Once again on the back side of a cold front with high pressure moving in. Highs for next Monday staying in the upper 80s with partly sunny skies to start the day and turning to mostly sunny.
Severe Weather Risk: SPC has not place us under a Slight Risk of severe weather for tonight, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and days 4-8 do not have anything severe at this time. However, some of our thunderstorms in the forecast could be at times on the strong side. Main threats should just be wind.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Tuesday: 7.2 (Medium)
Wednesday: 8.2 (Med-High)
Thursday: 8.2 (Med-High)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy, warm, 68
Tuesday: Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, hot, 92
Tuesday Night: Clearing, cooler, 63
Wednesday: Sunny, 88
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear to clear, 62
Thursday: Sunny, hot, 92
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 91
Saturday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 91
Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 90
Monday: Mostly to partly sunny, 88
That is it for tonight. Next blog update will be the severe weather risk blog in the morning. Have a great evening and God bless.
Severe Weather Risk for Monday, July 30th, 2012
Today
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening for parts of Wisconsin/Upper Michigan.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms through
early tonight for parts of the Mid-South to the Northeast Gulf Coast.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for Central
Montana late this afternoon/evening.
Tornado Threat
Just the basic low-end 2% probability for tornadoes today
for parts of Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. The conditions are right for a few supercell
thunderstorms that could cause some brief spin ups. Elsewhere across the
nation, chances are under 2%.
Wind Threat
The main threat for summer time thunderstorms is the
wind. The severe threat of wind, 15% probability, is in the Slight Risk area. We
see the basic low end 5% probability from the Gulf States to the Carolinas into
the Mississippi and Ohio Valley areas. Head out west, from Montana to the
Western Central Plains States. The 5% probability just means that the wind
threat will be on the strong side at times, mainly around the 15% areas.
Hail Threat
The 15% probability for hail, severe limit, is staying
again in the Slight Risk areas. Around the 15% areas is where we find the 5%
hail probability. This just means that we could see some strong thunderstorms
produce hail, general under the 1” severe limit. Montana and parts of Wyoming
and South Dakota under that also.
Tuesday
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across
parts of the Upper Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians through much of
the Eastern Gulf States.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the
Carolinas to Maryland through the Ohio Valley.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the
Northern and Central Plains.
Wednesday
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians into the Atlantic Coast.
There is a chance of strong thunderstorms for the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Region.
Thursday thru next Monday
No severe weather is forecast at this time.
That is it for today. I’ll try to get the SPC feed system
to work again because it has been down for a while. Next severe weather update tomorrow.
Have a great day and God bless.
Friday, July 27, 2012
Severe Weather Risk for Friday, July 27th thru Friday, August 3rd
Today
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the East Coast, Southeast, and South.
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central /Northern High Plains.
Tornado Threat
Tornadoes should not be a big threat today. We do have
the conditions to create a few spin ups, but they should be brief. I do believe
we will see a few isolated tornado warnings during the day.
Wind Threat
Wind will be another big problem today, but not as big as
Thursday. Main wind threat will be in Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Cincinnati, and
Louisville area. Areas around the 30% chance along with the East Coast,
Southeast, South, and the Plain States will see the normal severe wind risk
with everyone else at strong wind risk.
Hail Threat
Hail risk today in Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Cincinnati, Louisville,
Columbus, and the Central/High Plains area. Hail should be around the normal
severe risk.
Saturday
There is a general risk of strong thunderstorms in
Central/Southern Appalachians into Southern Mid-Atlantic Coastal areas.
Sunday
There is a general risk of strong thunderstorms for the
Northern High Plains.
There is a general risk of strong thunderstorms for the
Lower Mississippi Valley.
There is a general risk of strong thunderstorms between
Phoenix and Tucson.
There is a general risk of strong thunderstorms for
Northeast Georgia/Western and Central Carolinas.
Days 4-8 (Monday-Friday)
Potential is too low at this time for any severe weather
for days 4-8.
That it’s for today, the next severe weather update will
be from the feed system later this afternoon and I will have the next written update
on Monday. I’ll have updates today as needed. Have a great weekend and God
bless.
SPC Jul 27, 2012 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
RETROGRESSION OR WESTWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER APPEARS PROBABLE...WITH GENERAL UPPER
TROUGHINESS PREVAILING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH LARGER
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC...WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE PERIODIC EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-LIVED OR WIDESPREAD EVENT APPEARS TOO LOW TO
DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME...EVEN IF PREDICTABILITY
WAS NOT AN ISSUE AS WELL.
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
SPC Jul 27, 2012 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHIN BROADER
UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MOST AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IMPULSES PROGRESSING
AROUND THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE BENEATH UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY SOMEWHAT MODEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
MOST AREAS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH 20-30+ KT
WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE INITIATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS
...BUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE
PROMINENT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DEEPLY MIXED.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SOUTH OF THE MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING LIKELY. AIDED
BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND...PERHAPS...AN IMPULSE
CIRCULATING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTER...STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AIDED BY MODEST SHEAR BENEATH
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
DOWNBURSTS AND SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THE EVOLUTION OF
ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
...ARIZONA...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AT LEAST MODEST CAPE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
WIND/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED PROPAGATION TOWARD THE
PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD STILL REACH THIS AREA.
...NORTHEAST GEORGIA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS...
SHEAR BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...COULD SUPPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.
..KERR.. 07/27/2012
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
SPC Jul 27, 2012 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT FROM NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON VALLEYS AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. TO THE WEST...CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUING NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOWER LATITUDE LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MEANWHILE ...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE....AS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
/CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ BECOMES
CONFINED TO A NARROWING CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. OTHER
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL STORM
CLUSTER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...ON THE EDGE OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
ADVECTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE RISK FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
AT THE PRESENT TIME.
...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
AN AXIS OF FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...AS A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH...ACROSS AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MAY BE SWEPT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
IMPULSE...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS
WITH SOME HAIL AND THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT TOO MUCH VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS TO
SUPPORT OUTLOOK OF SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 07/27/2012
Read more
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SPC Jul 27, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS VORT
MAX OVER NWRN WI MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES
FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WRN U.S. COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE VORT MAX. A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT WILL PERSIST
FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY.
...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM MID ATLANTIC
AREA SWWD INTO NRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IN WARM SECTOR FROM VA SWWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO NRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. THIS REGION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...OH VALLEY AREA...
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER THE OH VALLEY AND WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MLCAPE WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT AND WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
MOVING VORT MAX. FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT 500 MB WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 40 KT
OVER NRN PARTS OF OH VALLEY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS WITH A
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL RESIDE IN
THIS REGION BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING
IN 1000-1200 MLCAPE AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEWD
ADVECTING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY PROMOTE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...MT AND WRN SD. ACTIVITY
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL BE
HIGH BASED...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS SUPPORTED BY
STRENGTHENING LLJ...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME MARGINAL DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 07/27/2012
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
Thursday, July 26, 2012
EvansvilleWatch Forecast for Thursday, July 26th, 2012 (Evening)
Slow Internet and computer tonight and I am nowhere near any storms. Let me just put everything together in a nut shell. Storms should end in the early morning hours. We still have a chance of more showers and storms for Friday, but staying hot. We stay dry for the weekend, but still hot in the lower 90s. Our next chance of rain moves in Sunday Night as a system aloft moves in. The rain should end on Thursday, but we might have a few here or there during the daytime. As for severe weather, that will come to an end overnight. Some storms next week could be on the strong side.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Friday: 5.5 (Medium)
Saturday: 6.2 (Medium)
Sunday: 6.3 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly to partly sunny, hot, 95
Friday Night: Clear, cooler, 67
Saturday: Sunny, 90
Saturday Night: Clear, 68
Sunday: Mostly sunny, 91
Monday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 94
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 95
Wednesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly to partly sunny, hot, 91
Thursday: Sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms, 90
The next blog update will be from the SPC Outlook feed. The next blog update that I will write will be sometime Friday morning and my next forecast will be Friday Night. Have a great night and God bless.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Friday: 5.5 (Medium)
Saturday: 6.2 (Medium)
Sunday: 6.3 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly to partly sunny, hot, 95
Friday Night: Clear, cooler, 67
Saturday: Sunny, 90
Saturday Night: Clear, 68
Sunday: Mostly sunny, 91
Monday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 94
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 95
Wednesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly to partly sunny, hot, 91
Thursday: Sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms, 90
The next blog update will be from the SPC Outlook feed. The next blog update that I will write will be sometime Friday morning and my next forecast will be Friday Night. Have a great night and God bless.
Covington FirstAlert Forecast for Thursday, July 26th, 2012 (Evening)
I have never liked dial-up Internet. It’s running so slow tonight, along with our computer, I did not want to make it crash. Weather in a nut shell. Showers and storms should stay isolated overnight and on Friday. Still will be breezy for Friday, but will clear later on in the day. Clear and dry for the weekend with highs in the mid-80s. Saturday Night looking to be the best night with temps in the lower 60s. Next chance of rain moves in on Sunday Night as a system aloft moves in. Highs for next week in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Severe weather threat is done for us tonight and it looks like no severe weather for the next week also, but some storms could be strong at times.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Friday: 6.4 (Medium)
Saturday: 7.0 (Medium)
Sunday: 7.3 (Med-High)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 68
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, warm, breezy, 89
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, cool, 63
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 84
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, 62
Sunday: Mostly to partly sunny, 85
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 89
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 91
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, 89
Thursday: Sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms, 88
The next blog update will be from the SPC Outlook feed. The next blog update that I will write will be sometime Friday morning and my next forecast will be Friday Night. Have a great night and God bless.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Friday: 6.4 (Medium)
Saturday: 7.0 (Medium)
Sunday: 7.3 (Med-High)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 68
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, warm, breezy, 89
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, cool, 63
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 84
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, 62
Sunday: Mostly to partly sunny, 85
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 89
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 91
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, 89
Thursday: Sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms, 88
The next blog update will be from the SPC Outlook feed. The next blog update that I will write will be sometime Friday morning and my next forecast will be Friday Night. Have a great night and God bless.
SPC Jul 27, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THROUGH A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS PERSIST
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...WV...KY INTO AR AND ERN OK. STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER DEEP LAYER
WINDS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT WITH SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. WARM
SECTOR REMAINS MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AND SEWD
PROPAGATION ALONG EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.
..DIAL.. 07/27/2012
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
SPC Jul 26, 2012 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SRN OH...NRN
WV/MD/DE...PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...WRN MA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MID-MS
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/POTENTIAL DERECHO APPEAR TO BE
UNFOLDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...OH TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
ADJUSTED MODERATE RISK TO ALONG AND AHEAD OF INITIAL QLCS IN SWRN NY
TO ERN OH AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING BACK IN WRN OH.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO BE MEASURED BY ANY ASOS/AWOS
OBSERVATIONS...50-55 KT EWD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS
INITIAL LINE AND 18Z PIT/OKX RAOBS ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF FAST
ELY PROPAGATION. CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK BUT RELATIVELY
MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 18Z RAOBS
SUGGEST MODERATE RISK APPEARS MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY AS THE NUMBER OF BOWING SEGMENTS INCREASE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
THREAT OF ISOLATED INTENSE WIND DAMAGE AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID-MS AND TN VALLEYS...
ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND ENHANCED WIND
PROBABILITIES AS TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER
WLYS...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING COLD POOLS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PROBABLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION SHOULD TEND TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY.
...WI AREA...
SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.
..GRAMS.. 07/26/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NERN STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM MI INTO IL. AT THE SURFACE...VERY UNSTABLE
AIR RESIDES SE OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM SRN IL NEWD ACROSS NRN IND AND OH. TO
THE NE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS CNTRL PA
INTO NJ...BUT HEATING WILL CONTINUE N OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN
NY...AND JUST S OF ANOTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
FROM SYRACUSE TO ALBANY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING SHOULD
HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
NWD ACROSS PA...SRN NY...AND EVENTUALLY SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM
MAINTENANCE.
ELSEWHERE...THE SWRN PORTION OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS
FAR SW AS OK.
...INDIANA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO INITIATE FROM WRN PA SWWD ACROSS
OH AND IND BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL FURTHER BE
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MUCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40+ KT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MEAN
WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF AND MERGING OF
DEVELOPING STORM CELLS INTO LINES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PA/NEW ENGLAND SFC
BOUNDARIES...THEY MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING
SWATHS OF WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWHEAD/MESO-LOW.
...ERN LOWER MI EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND INTO NY...
WHILE THE PRIMARY MCS DEVELOPS TO THE S...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER LOWER MI EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH PWAT IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES. FLOW ALOFT AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS COVERAGE.
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THEN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY...
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/MO/IL...JUST NW OF I-44.
THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE
NW...LINGERING CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WILL WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM IL TO OK...SUGGESTING THAT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD IL...AND PULSE-TYPE
STORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO OK. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND CLEARING
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
SPC Jul 26, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE BLACK HILLS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER WILL DAMPEN
ON FRI AS IT TRACKS SEWD THEN EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...AN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX CRESTING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL RAPIDLY EJECT SEWD AND
LIKELY REACH THE MIDWEST BY EARLY SAT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY
MAINTAIN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC
TOWARDS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...WHILE THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER PARTS OF IND/OH ON
FRI AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. A MYRIAD OF OUTFLOWS FROM D1 CONVECTION SHOULD BE PREVALENT
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...
RELATIVELY NEBULOUS SURFACE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON D1. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY FIELD
WILL LIKELY BE FRACTURED...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS BREEDS POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 25-45 KT WLYS AT 500 MB.
THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR TSTM INITIATION ON FRI AFTERNOON APPEARS
TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH
VALLEY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE FRONTAL ZONE
WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED ACROSS LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO OVERTURNING ON D1. SUSPECT WITH STRONG
HEATING...NAM-RELATED GUIDANCE MAY PROVE CLOSER TO REALITY. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...PRIMARY
THREATS SHOULD BE BOTH SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
FARTHER E...ANOTHER FOCUSED AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH HIGHER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE POOR...STRONG
HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WIND.
...NRN ROCKIES TO THE BLACK HILLS...
A BELT OF CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW /GENERALLY 25-40 KT AT 500 MB/
SHOULD PERSIST N OF THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY TOP THE RIDGE IN THE
SRN MT/NRN WY AREA ON FRI AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAK
IMPULSE...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS WRN NEB/SD. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL BE ADEQUATE
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. FARTHER W/NW...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 07/26/2012
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
SPC Jul 26, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
IND...OH...NRN WV...NRN MD/DE...PA...NJ...SRN NY...WRN MA/CT...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND...AND FROM IL NWD INTO WI...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
NERN STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM MI INTO IL. AT THE SURFACE...VERY UNSTABLE
AIR RESIDES SE OF A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM SRN IL NEWD ACROSS NRN IND AND OH. TO
THE NE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS CNTRL PA
INTO NJ...BUT HEATING WILL CONTINUE N OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN
NY...AND JUST S OF ANOTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
FROM SYRACUSE TO ALBANY. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING SHOULD
HELP ERODE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
NWD ACROSS PA...SRN NY...AND EVENTUALLY SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM
MAINTENANCE.
ELSEWHERE...THE SWRN PORTION OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS
FAR SW AS OK.
...INDIANA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG HEATING WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO INITIATE FROM WRN PA SWWD ACROSS
OH AND IND BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL FURTHER BE
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MUCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 40+ KT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MEAN
WINDS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF AND MERGING OF
DEVELOPING STORM CELLS INTO LINES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PA/NEW ENGLAND SFC
BOUNDARIES...THEY MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING
SWATHS OF WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWHEAD/MESO-LOW.
...ERN LOWER MI EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND INTO NY...
WHILE THE PRIMARY MCS DEVELOPS TO THE S...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER LOWER MI EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH PWAT IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES. FLOW ALOFT AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS COVERAGE.
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THEN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.
...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY...
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/MO/IL...JUST NW OF I-44.
THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE
NW...LINGERING CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WILL WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM IL TO OK...SUGGESTING THAT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD IL...AND PULSE-TYPE
STORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO OK. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND CLEARING
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
..JEWELL/COHEN.. 07/26/2012
Read more
via SPC Convective Outlooks http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
Severe Weather Risk update for Thursday, July 26th, 2012
There
is a Moderate Risk of severe weather this afternoon/evening for parts of the
Ohio Valley across Pennsylvania to Southern New England.
There
is a Slight Risk of severe weather surrounding the Moderate Risk from Oklahoma
to Wisconsin, and eastward to the Mid-Atlantic.
Tornado threat staying over the New York City area with the general tornado threat from Boston to Philly and Pittsburgh. We really do not see tornadoes during the summer months because we just do not have the conditions for them. So we will have to see what today does bring.
The main threat for today will be the wind. About a 50/50 chance of severe wind damage in the Moderate Risk and those numbers are almost maxed out. Indy, Louisville, Washington, DC, and the Boston area in a 30%, with everyone else on the map at the standard severe/strong risk.
The
main hail risk is once again going to be in the Moderate Risk area. We could be
seeing hail about a good couple of inches. Elsewhere, hail size should range
from below to the normal severe risk.
Friday
A
general strong thunderstorm risk for the Ohio/Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
and the Black Hills Region.
A general strong thunderstorm risk for Delmarva to the Coastal South Carolina area and for the Northern/Central Plains.
 |
Days 4-8 (Sunday thru next Thursday) not showing up as severe yet.
That’s it for this update. I will try to have a feed system up all day to update you on the chances in the severe weather risk. Stay safe and God bless.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
EvansvilleWatch Forecast for Wednesday, July 25th, 2012 (Evening)
Warnings, Watches, and Advisories
Excessive Heat Warning for Gibson, Pike Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick Counties in Indiana, Daviess, Henderson, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Union, Webster Counties in Kentucky, Edwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, Wabash, Wayne, White Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Thursday.
Heat Advisory for Dubois County in Indiana until 7PM EDT Thursday.
Just one more day of all of these heat warnings and advisories and we are done, well for now. We are now starting to enter the hottest time of the year, so that only means we down after awhile. Staying warm overnight with lows in the upper 70s. We have two different cold fronts that will move over during Thursday and Friday that will give us a chance of rain. Front number one will give us a chance of severe weather for Thursday. See the Severe Weather Risk for more details. The best chance for these storms will start in the afternoon hours. The front should start to be in the Tri-State by the evening hours. It will move over during the overnight and weaken. Clouds will increase while still staying breezy for Thursday with highs in the mid-90s and the cloud cover will stay around Thursday Night with lows in the lower 70s. Front number two will move over during the day. Once that leaves, skies will clear and still staying hot in the mid-90s, but overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Weekend: High pressure will stay north and keep us nice and clear. Mostly sunny to sunny skies for the weekend, but temps will stay hot in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Next rain system will move in on Sunday Night.
Monday thru Wednesday: A warm front aloft will move in, giving us another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Our best chance will come Tuesday with Monday and Wednesday staying in the isolated to widely scattered section. Highs for all three days stay in the lower 90s.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather for all of the Tri-State on Thursday and Thursday Night. Main threat look to be damaging winds, large hail, dangerous lighting, and heavy rainfall. Friday looks to be on the strong side at times, but not anything too big, yet. For next week, too early to tell if they will be severe, but a few might be strong.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Thursday: 5.5 (Medium)
Friday: 5.4 (Medium)
Saturday: 5.8 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Clear, warm, 77
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, hot, breezy, 96
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, hot, 95
Friday Night: Clear, cool, 68
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 88
Sunday: Sunny, hot, 91
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 92
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 90
Wednesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 90
My next update will be sometime on Thursday. Stay with EvansvilleWatch all day for updates on the severe weather heading towards the Tri-State. Have a great night and God bless.
Excessive Heat Warning for Gibson, Pike Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick Counties in Indiana, Daviess, Henderson, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Union, Webster Counties in Kentucky, Edwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, Wabash, Wayne, White Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Thursday.
Heat Advisory for Dubois County in Indiana until 7PM EDT Thursday.
Just one more day of all of these heat warnings and advisories and we are done, well for now. We are now starting to enter the hottest time of the year, so that only means we down after awhile. Staying warm overnight with lows in the upper 70s. We have two different cold fronts that will move over during Thursday and Friday that will give us a chance of rain. Front number one will give us a chance of severe weather for Thursday. See the Severe Weather Risk for more details. The best chance for these storms will start in the afternoon hours. The front should start to be in the Tri-State by the evening hours. It will move over during the overnight and weaken. Clouds will increase while still staying breezy for Thursday with highs in the mid-90s and the cloud cover will stay around Thursday Night with lows in the lower 70s. Front number two will move over during the day. Once that leaves, skies will clear and still staying hot in the mid-90s, but overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Weekend: High pressure will stay north and keep us nice and clear. Mostly sunny to sunny skies for the weekend, but temps will stay hot in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Next rain system will move in on Sunday Night.
Monday thru Wednesday: A warm front aloft will move in, giving us another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Our best chance will come Tuesday with Monday and Wednesday staying in the isolated to widely scattered section. Highs for all three days stay in the lower 90s.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather for all of the Tri-State on Thursday and Thursday Night. Main threat look to be damaging winds, large hail, dangerous lighting, and heavy rainfall. Friday looks to be on the strong side at times, but not anything too big, yet. For next week, too early to tell if they will be severe, but a few might be strong.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Thursday: 5.5 (Medium)
Friday: 5.4 (Medium)
Saturday: 5.8 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Clear, warm, 77
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, hot, breezy, 96
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, hot, 95
Friday Night: Clear, cool, 68
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 88
Sunday: Sunny, hot, 91
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, 92
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 90
Wednesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 90
My next update will be sometime on Thursday. Stay with EvansvilleWatch all day for updates on the severe weather heading towards the Tri-State. Have a great night and God bless.
Covington FirstAlert Forecast for Wednesday, July 25th, 2012 (Evening)
Warnings, Watches, and Advisories
None
If you can handle one more hot day, I will give you some rain. Highs this afternoon did start to reach near 100 again. Good news is we do have any heat advisories or warnings out for the Covington area tonight. The warm front I was talking about last did move over us today and did make us more breezy. The breezy conditions will be here for the day on Thursday. But first, the overnight does give us a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms behind the front. Still warm with partly cloudy skies in the mid-70s. We have not one, but two different cold fronts moving over for both Thursday and Friday. The Thursday front is the one that does look to bring us our best chance of severe weather. See the Severe Weather Risk section at the end of the forecast to see what is in store for us. Before the front gets here, we will be hot and breezy still with highs ranging from the low to mid-90s and heat index numbers in low 100s. Front number one moves over on Thursday and Thursday Night. Temps for Thursday Night should be just a little above normal in the mid-60s. Front number two moves in on Friday during the daytime hours, giving us another chance of showers and thunderstorms, but nothing is looking to be severe because all the juice will just gone. Skies will clear and temps in the upper 80s for highs and lower 60s for lows.
Weekend: Saturday and Sunday looking to be nice as high pressure moves in and takes control for awhile. Clear and sunny with highs in the mid-80s for both days. We are watching a system aloft on Sunday Night that could bring us more showers and thunderstorms.
Monday thru Wednesday: Watching a warm front aloft that does look to bring more showers and thunderstorm for all three days. Highs should stay in the upper 80s to near 90.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather is out for Thursday and Thursday Night. Main threats will be damaging wind, large hail, dangerous lighting, and heavy rainfall. Storms for next week are not expected to be severe at this time, but some could be on the strong side.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Thursday: 5.4 (Medium)
Friday: 6.8 (Medium)
Saturday: 7.0 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy, maybe a shower or two, warm, 76
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, breezy, 92
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 67
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, warm, 87
Friday Night: Clear, cool, 63
Saturday: Sunny, 86
Sunday: Sunny, 87
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 89
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 89
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 88
That is it for tonight. I will try to have another blog update sometime on Thursday. Also, I will be putting out weather watches and warnings during the day. Have a great night and God bless.
None
If you can handle one more hot day, I will give you some rain. Highs this afternoon did start to reach near 100 again. Good news is we do have any heat advisories or warnings out for the Covington area tonight. The warm front I was talking about last did move over us today and did make us more breezy. The breezy conditions will be here for the day on Thursday. But first, the overnight does give us a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms behind the front. Still warm with partly cloudy skies in the mid-70s. We have not one, but two different cold fronts moving over for both Thursday and Friday. The Thursday front is the one that does look to bring us our best chance of severe weather. See the Severe Weather Risk section at the end of the forecast to see what is in store for us. Before the front gets here, we will be hot and breezy still with highs ranging from the low to mid-90s and heat index numbers in low 100s. Front number one moves over on Thursday and Thursday Night. Temps for Thursday Night should be just a little above normal in the mid-60s. Front number two moves in on Friday during the daytime hours, giving us another chance of showers and thunderstorms, but nothing is looking to be severe because all the juice will just gone. Skies will clear and temps in the upper 80s for highs and lower 60s for lows.
Weekend: Saturday and Sunday looking to be nice as high pressure moves in and takes control for awhile. Clear and sunny with highs in the mid-80s for both days. We are watching a system aloft on Sunday Night that could bring us more showers and thunderstorms.
Monday thru Wednesday: Watching a warm front aloft that does look to bring more showers and thunderstorm for all three days. Highs should stay in the upper 80s to near 90.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather is out for Thursday and Thursday Night. Main threats will be damaging wind, large hail, dangerous lighting, and heavy rainfall. Storms for next week are not expected to be severe at this time, but some could be on the strong side.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Thursday: 5.4 (Medium)
Friday: 6.8 (Medium)
Saturday: 7.0 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy, maybe a shower or two, warm, 76
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, breezy, 92
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 67
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing, warm, 87
Friday Night: Clear, cool, 63
Saturday: Sunny, 86
Sunday: Sunny, 87
Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 89
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, 89
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 88
That is it for tonight. I will try to have another blog update sometime on Thursday. Also, I will be putting out weather watches and warnings during the day. Have a great night and God bless.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
EvansvilleWatch Forecast for Tuesday, July 24th, 2012 (Evening)
Warnings, Watches, and Advisories
Excessive Heat Warning for Gibson, Pike Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick Counties in Indiana, Daviess, Henderson, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Union, Webster Counties in Kentucky, Edwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, Wabash, Wayne, White Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Thursday.
Heat Advisory for Richland, Lawrence, Clay Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Wednesday.
Heat Advisory for Knox, Daviess, Martin Counties in Indiana until 8PM EDT Wednesday.
Some of us in the Tri-State did get rain today, but we all need it and we need it bad. Good news is, rain is in the forecast, but you need to get use to the heat for just a little bit more. All of this heat is caused by a high pressure system aloft. When we have a buckle in the jet stream, like we do, a ridge of high pressure and a trough of low pressure forms. Ridge means hot weather and the trough means storms. The ridge of high pressure is causing a heat dome over us. When you have that dome of heat, it just stays hot and nothing wants to form, but around it. We have seen the “Ring of Fire” in most of the area, but not in the heart of the Tri-State.
Overnight: Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end in the Tri-State overnight, some clouds around with muggy conditions, lows in the mid-70s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A warm front is going to lift northward during Wednesday. Once again this year, Evansville will be above 100. We also are going to be more breezy with gust from 20-35MPH. The overnight hours will be clear, but still warm, muggy, and breezy with lows in the mid-70s again.
Thursday thru Friday: We do have cold front moving in on Thursday. This will give us our best chance of showers and thunderstorms for both the daytime and overnight hours. Read the Severe Weather Risk to see how severe they are forecasted to be. Clouds will increase on Thursday, still hot, humid, breezy highs in the upper 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s. A few showers and thunderstorms will remain Friday behind the front, but cooler, if you want to call it that, with highs in the lower 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Weekend: High pressure for the weekend. That means we will be having sunshine and highs for the weekend are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. We do have a chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late Sunday Night.
Monday and Tuesday: Watching a warm front that will bring back more showers and thunderstorms. Temps are forecasted at this time to stay in the lower 90s. If you do not see rain, skies will stay partly sunny to partly cloudy.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather on Thursday for part of the Tri-State. Damaging winds being the main overall threat with large hail also possible. Friday, Sunday Night, and Monday chances are on the strong side at this time, but isolated severe weather cannot be ruled out at this time.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 5.3 (Medium)
Thursday: 5.7 (Medium)
Friday: 5.2 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, warm, muggy, 76
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 101
Wednesday Night: Clear, warm, muggy, breezy, 76
Thursday: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, hot, humid, breezy, 97
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly to mostly sunny, hot, 93
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 89
Sunday: Mostly sunny, 92
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 92
Tuesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 93
My next blog update will be Wednesday Night. Thank you, have a great evening, and God bless.
Excessive Heat Warning for Gibson, Pike Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick Counties in Indiana, Daviess, Henderson, Henderson, Hopkins, McLean, Muhlenberg, Union, Webster Counties in Kentucky, Edwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, Wabash, Wayne, White Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Thursday.
Heat Advisory for Richland, Lawrence, Clay Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Wednesday.
Heat Advisory for Knox, Daviess, Martin Counties in Indiana until 8PM EDT Wednesday.
Some of us in the Tri-State did get rain today, but we all need it and we need it bad. Good news is, rain is in the forecast, but you need to get use to the heat for just a little bit more. All of this heat is caused by a high pressure system aloft. When we have a buckle in the jet stream, like we do, a ridge of high pressure and a trough of low pressure forms. Ridge means hot weather and the trough means storms. The ridge of high pressure is causing a heat dome over us. When you have that dome of heat, it just stays hot and nothing wants to form, but around it. We have seen the “Ring of Fire” in most of the area, but not in the heart of the Tri-State.
Overnight: Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end in the Tri-State overnight, some clouds around with muggy conditions, lows in the mid-70s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A warm front is going to lift northward during Wednesday. Once again this year, Evansville will be above 100. We also are going to be more breezy with gust from 20-35MPH. The overnight hours will be clear, but still warm, muggy, and breezy with lows in the mid-70s again.
Thursday thru Friday: We do have cold front moving in on Thursday. This will give us our best chance of showers and thunderstorms for both the daytime and overnight hours. Read the Severe Weather Risk to see how severe they are forecasted to be. Clouds will increase on Thursday, still hot, humid, breezy highs in the upper 90s and overnight lows in the lower 70s. A few showers and thunderstorms will remain Friday behind the front, but cooler, if you want to call it that, with highs in the lower 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Weekend: High pressure for the weekend. That means we will be having sunshine and highs for the weekend are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. We do have a chance of showers and thunderstorms starting late Sunday Night.
Monday and Tuesday: Watching a warm front that will bring back more showers and thunderstorms. Temps are forecasted at this time to stay in the lower 90s. If you do not see rain, skies will stay partly sunny to partly cloudy.
Severe Weather Risk: Slight Risk of severe weather on Thursday for part of the Tri-State. Damaging winds being the main overall threat with large hail also possible. Friday, Sunday Night, and Monday chances are on the strong side at this time, but isolated severe weather cannot be ruled out at this time.
Evansville Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 5.3 (Medium)
Thursday: 5.7 (Medium)
Friday: 5.2 (Medium)
EvansvilleWatch Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, warm, muggy, 76
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 101
Wednesday Night: Clear, warm, muggy, breezy, 76
Thursday: Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, increasing clouds, hot, humid, breezy, 97
Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly to mostly sunny, hot, 93
Saturday: Mostly sunny, 89
Sunday: Mostly sunny, 92
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 92
Tuesday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 93
My next blog update will be Wednesday Night. Thank you, have a great evening, and God bless.
Covington FirstAlert Forecast for Tuesday, July 24th, 2012 (Evening)
Warnings, Watches, and Advisories
Heat Advisory for Fountain, Warren, Vermillion, Parke, Tippecanoe, Montgomery Counties in Indiana until 8PM EDT Wednesday.
Heat Advisory for Champaign, Vermilion Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Wednesday.
Some of us had a loud morning Tuesday as severe thunderstorm went over part of Indiana and Illinois. Most of the storm damage reports that came in was for wind damage, mainly straight line wind damage. Our tornadoes chances for the summer are low, but our wind damage chances are high. We do have another chance of strong storms overnight thanks to what is giving us this hot weather. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is causing a heat dome and pushing everything our way. The jet stream is also near this heat dome. Put the jet stream and hot dome together and you get this “Ring of Fire” where thunderstorms will fire off. This is normal for the summer months, so do not think the world is ending.
Overnight: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, we will stay warm thanks to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 70s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A warm front will lift northward during the day. Behind the front we will see temps reach the upper 90s to low 100s and it will be breezy with wind gust from 20-30MPH. Heat index will be above 100. The overnight hours will only be worse with skies staying partly cloudy, but lows reaching the upper 70s, just making it down right muggy. An isolated chance with mostly sunny skies for the daytime and about a 25% chance of rain during the overnight.
Thursday thru Friday: A cold front with a trough of low pressure will move in Thursday and Thursday Night giving us a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. See the Severe Weather Risk for more details. While it still will be hot on Thursday, temps will reach around 90, but still on the humid and breezy side. Overnight heading back to near normal lows in the upper 60s. Some storms could still stay around on Friday, but the sun will be out for about most of the time and highs back to near normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Weekend: We might see a small cell or two early Saturday morning, mainly when we are sleeping. Otherwise, high pressure in the north moves in and we have sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday and Tuesday: Watching a warm front for the start of week that could bring us more showers and thunderstorms. Right now, models are keeping the temps for both days near normal.
Severe Weather Risk: We do have a chance of seeing some strong storms during the overnight hours. Damaging winds is going to be the main overall threat. Small hail, heavy rainfall, and dangerous lighting cannot be ruled out. Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday for the Illiana area. Main overall threat looks to be damaging winds, large hail cannot be ruled out. Dangerous lighting and heavy rainfall is also forecasted to happen. Friday, Monday, and Tuesday storms do look to be on the strong side right now, but a few isolated severe ones may happen.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 6.0 (Medium)
Thursday: 4.7 (Low-Medium)
Friday: 6.9 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 99
Wednesday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, warm, humid, 77
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 90
Thursday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 68
Friday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly to mostly sunny, 87
Saturday: Early isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, 85
Sunday: Sunny, 87
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 87
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 86
My next blog update will be Wednesday Night. Thank you, have a great evening, and God bless.
Heat Advisory for Fountain, Warren, Vermillion, Parke, Tippecanoe, Montgomery Counties in Indiana until 8PM EDT Wednesday.
Heat Advisory for Champaign, Vermilion Counties in Illinois until 7PM CDT Wednesday.
Some of us had a loud morning Tuesday as severe thunderstorm went over part of Indiana and Illinois. Most of the storm damage reports that came in was for wind damage, mainly straight line wind damage. Our tornadoes chances for the summer are low, but our wind damage chances are high. We do have another chance of strong storms overnight thanks to what is giving us this hot weather. A strong ridge of high pressure aloft is causing a heat dome and pushing everything our way. The jet stream is also near this heat dome. Put the jet stream and hot dome together and you get this “Ring of Fire” where thunderstorms will fire off. This is normal for the summer months, so do not think the world is ending.
Overnight: Chance of showers and thunderstorms, we will stay warm thanks to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 70s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A warm front will lift northward during the day. Behind the front we will see temps reach the upper 90s to low 100s and it will be breezy with wind gust from 20-30MPH. Heat index will be above 100. The overnight hours will only be worse with skies staying partly cloudy, but lows reaching the upper 70s, just making it down right muggy. An isolated chance with mostly sunny skies for the daytime and about a 25% chance of rain during the overnight.
Thursday thru Friday: A cold front with a trough of low pressure will move in Thursday and Thursday Night giving us a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. See the Severe Weather Risk for more details. While it still will be hot on Thursday, temps will reach around 90, but still on the humid and breezy side. Overnight heading back to near normal lows in the upper 60s. Some storms could still stay around on Friday, but the sun will be out for about most of the time and highs back to near normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Weekend: We might see a small cell or two early Saturday morning, mainly when we are sleeping. Otherwise, high pressure in the north moves in and we have sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 80s.
Monday and Tuesday: Watching a warm front for the start of week that could bring us more showers and thunderstorms. Right now, models are keeping the temps for both days near normal.
Severe Weather Risk: We do have a chance of seeing some strong storms during the overnight hours. Damaging winds is going to be the main overall threat. Small hail, heavy rainfall, and dangerous lighting cannot be ruled out. Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday for the Illiana area. Main overall threat looks to be damaging winds, large hail cannot be ruled out. Dangerous lighting and heavy rainfall is also forecasted to happen. Friday, Monday, and Tuesday storms do look to be on the strong side right now, but a few isolated severe ones may happen.
Covington Pollen.com PollenCast
Wednesday: 6.0 (Medium)
Thursday: 4.7 (Low-Medium)
Friday: 6.9 (Medium)
Covington FirstAlert Seven Day Forecast
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, warm, 72
Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 99
Wednesday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly cloudy, warm, humid, 77
Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, hot, humid, breezy, 90
Thursday Night: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly cloudy, 68
Friday: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly to mostly sunny, 87
Saturday: Early isolated showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, 85
Sunday: Sunny, 87
Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny, 87
Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, partly sunny to partly cloudy, 86
My next blog update will be Wednesday Night. Thank you, have a great evening, and God bless.
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